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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare

The chain of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: optimistic declarations are released from multiple capitals. Significant resources is allocated on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "resolution".

Nocturnal Warfare

As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from Russian territory, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.

Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: several firings targeted at a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly transforms into sober acceptance: possibly the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and further power outages.

Continuous Dangers

Following this, a heavy machine gun fired at a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly imported technology. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its target.

Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a need that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The comprehensive proposal from American leadership generated strong feelings, discussion and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.

Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, undoubtedly, persist.

Tactical Assessments

It is convenient to criticize certain parties of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership functions according to a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House assumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does minimal to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its benefit in the months ahead.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its advantage.

Current Realities

Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: political desires to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.

These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.

Summary and Prospects

It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.

While new proposals based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.