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A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.

That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."

New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion

The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.

"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Both composes two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.

Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid points, he said. "One side will succeed here and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has got something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."

Call for Broader Debate

Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."